TD Cowen Research Themes 2026
To help inform successful pathways for investors and corporate executives alike, TD Cowen has developed a special edition of our annual Thematic outlook. It features our award-winning Research staff in conversation with more than 20 of the world's leading experts on the secular trends shaping global economic discourse today where our own domain expertise has been central to the discussion and debate.
Topics include China's evolving position on the world stage; the future of warfare; the impact of digital assets, such as stablecoins; artificial intelligence (AI); the future of the U.S. dollar and much more.
Themes for 2026
China's Global Position
On the geopolitical front, observers are watching China's alliances with the stance toward Taiwan raising particular concerns about access to semiconductor supply. Scrutiny of China's political stances comes on the heels of over 60% growth in China's defense budget over the last 10 years. In addition, China's business sector has benefitted from consistent, long-term government support. There is no greater issue affecting the global economy and geopolitics more than China.
Future of Warfare
As global defense spending exceeds US$2.7 trillion in 2025, the United States and its allies face a defining challenge: balancing investments in conventional forces with asymmetric capabilities amid lessons from current and past conflicts. Emerging technologies are reshaping priorities at blinding speed, and the core challenge for the U.S. and its allies is integration.
Energy Demand
The North American energy landscape is at a crossroads, grappling with an aging grid, with over 70% of transmission lines more than 25 years old. Surging demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous technologies are projected to consume up to 9% of electricity by 2035. Success in securing sufficient energy to meet demand will hinge on mobilizing funding for resilient infrastructure, fostering public-private partnerships and outpacing supply threats.
Demographic Catalysts
Demographic change is the quiet force shaping the global economy, predictable in its direction but profound in its impact. Falling fertility rates, increased life expectancy, shifting immigration policies and delayed life milestones for younger adults are re-ordering consumption patterns, dictating which sectors and asset classes will thrive and falter in the decades ahead.
Automation & Robotics
Across numerous industries, automation and robotics are helping improve efficiency and corporate margins and are providing support to economic programs that favor onshore manufacturing. At the same time, investment in automation and robotics is costly, and there are concerns that the technology cycle may end up outpacing return on investment. This conversation probes the heart of modern industry: how to balance the reliability of robotic efficiency against the adaptability of human ingenuity.
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence lies at the center of three major technology frontiers – autonomous vehicles (AVs), Internet search and quantum computing – and serves a distinct role in each. Across all three of these domains, AI's impact, quantified in trillions of dollars of new market value, double and triple-digit growth rates and exponential compute demand, marks it as both the engine and the endpoint in our current super-cycle of technological progress.
Health Care Innovation
The biotech and life sciences sector has faced considerable difficulties. While much turmoil persists, including cost pressures, the rising prowess of China and U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding uncertainty, there is reason for optimism into 2026 as new technologies begin to take hold, more companies harvest new therapeutics from the gains made in the last decade and novel payment models start to scale.
Health Care Regulation
Health care has not been immune to significant regulatory changes emerging from Washington D.C., but experts contend that much of the disruption does not warrant dramatic changes in corporate strategy. As policies solidify through 2026, innovation-focused companies should continue to thrive but will need to enhance communication of their value to the diverse stakeholders in and beyond Washington D.C.
Digital Assets & Stablecoin
The integration of digital assets into the mainstream financial system got a boost in 2025 with the passage of U.S. legislation that established a regulatory framework for the use of stablecoins. Proponents envision a world in which money moves as freely as information does online, however hurdles to adoption have included regulatory uncertainty, scalability concerns and a lack of public trust. Global legislation will be needed for cross-border use and interoperability.
The Future of the Dollar
After decades of dominance, the U.S. dollar has slipped from 72% of global reserves in 1999 to roughly 57% today, reflecting a slow but persistent diversification trend. Policy uncertainty, fiscal imbalances and tariff risks have eroded confidence in some corners. Meanwhile, gold reserves have surged, and the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status can appear strained.