Technology

Assessing AI Chatbot Risk to Traditional Search Models

By: John Blackledge, William Kerr, James Kopelman, Logan Whalley

Sep. 23, 2025 - 2 minutes

Person working at a desktop computer in a modern office, using a large monitor displaying a chat interface with multiple conversation windows.

Overview:

The current leading search engine models could overcome the GenAI threat with tech-focused DNA, early response to chatbot search and massive scale advantage.
Our proprietary survey shows artificial intelligence (AI) innovations are driving higher usage of their search models.
We share an in-depth sensitivity analysis, showing impact to revenue based on four potential outcomes to GenAI disruption of the traditional search model.

The TD Cowen Insight

With the rise of AI chatbots, a pioneer in modern technology and search models faces its biggest secular threat. We think their search model can stave off risk from a dominant AI chatbot and others, helped by its massive scale and tech DNA; our view reflects

proprietary survey data showing solid uptake of their launched AI innovations;
bottom-up chatbot app user and prompt forecast and
an updated sensitivity analysis.

Our Thesis

With the rise of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) chatbots, the traditional search model is staring down the innovator's dilemma. The setup reflects the textbook case: a new technology platform emerges establishing a first mover advantage and forcing the incumbent to make hard choices to evolve and maintain its leadership. In practice, the incumbent often cedes leadership position because it cannot react quickly and make drastic organization-wide changes while maintaining profit margins.

That multinational tech company has recently introduced GenAI features which alter the traditional search experience by incorporating chatbot capabilities under the existing domain. Early results are encouraging; per our TD Cowen U.S. survey data, the implemented innovations are leading to higher usage of the current search model.

Given new AI Search features and the AI innovation underway by this firm, we expect this company to maintain its leadership in traditional search models, growing their search model revenue by 8% annually between 2026 and 2031.

What Is Proprietary?

Our proprietary analysis includes

TD Cowen survey data on traditional and AI chatbot search, which suggests a solid uptake of new AI-driven search engine features
Our new bottom-up search model, including traditional search and AI chat app model
Our new bottom-up model for the challenger GenAI chatbot and
Our sensitivity analysis on traditional search revenue trajectory '26E-'31E

Subscribing clients can read the full report, Assessing the AI Chatbot Risk… - Ahead of Curve, on the TD One Portal

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John Blackledge

Managing Director, TMT – Internet Research Analyst, TD Cowen

John Blackledge
Managing Director, TMT – Internet Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

John Blackledge is a managing director and senior research analyst who covers the Internet and new media sector. Prior to joining TD Cowen in August 2012, he was a vice president covering Internet stocks at Credit Suisse for more than three years. Before joining Credit Suisse, Mr. Blackledge spent six years at JPMorgan, where he was a vice president covering the entertainment, broadcasting, and cable/DBS sectors before assuming research coverage of radio, TV, and outdoor stocks. Earlier in his career, he held positions at ABN AMRO, CIBC, and Arthur Andersen. Mr. Blackledge has a BS degree with a major in accounting from Georgetown University.

Bill Kerr

Vice President, Internet Sector, TD Cowen

Bill Kerr
Vice President, Internet Sector, TD Cowen

Biography

Bill has been working on the Internet team at TD Cowen since 2017. Prior to joining TD Cowen, he worked at Balyasny Asset Management as a member of their proprietary research team. Bill received a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance and Accounting from Georgetown University.

James Kopelman

Vice President, TMT Research Analyst, TD Cowen

James Kopelman
Vice President, TMT Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

James Kopelman is a vice president covering the internet and eCommerce sectors. He joined TD Cowen in 2017 as an associate. Prior to joining TD Cowen, Mr. Kopelman worked as an associate covering media at JPMorgan and has previously worked in equity research covering media since 2011.

Mr. Kopelman holds a BA in Spanish from the University of Oklahoma, where he was a National Merit Scholar and graduated magna cum laude, and he received an MBA from Georgetown University, where he was an MBA Merit Scholarship recipient. Mr. Kopelman has also studied at Universidad Complutense de Madrid and HEC Paris. Mr. Kopelman is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.