Consumer & Retail

The China Report: Decoding the Chinese Consumer

By: James Rossiter, Alex Loo, Roman Schweizer, Oliver Chen, Robert Moskow

Jul. 03, 2026 - 2 minutes

Pedestrians walking along Shanghai waterfront with city skyline in haze.

What You Need to Know:

Our proprietary survey of over 2,000 Chinese consumers revealed a message of caution, not reacceleration
Finances look flat, savings remain elevated, wage bargaining power is weak and property pessimism is still entrenched.
Chinese consumers have a worsening view of the U.S., in contrast to recent U.S. polling showing slightly improving sentiment toward China.
We are slightly more positive on the China's luxury consumers given stabilizing demand, though recovery remains slow and uneven.

The TD Cowen Insight

China’s economy remains two-speed—exports strong, consumers weak—with policy still skewed to manufacturing over household support. Our proprietary consumer survey reveals cautious, high-saving households, weak wage confidence and persistent property pessimism—pointing to a prolonged consumption recovery. We see divergence across luxury goods and nascent signs of recovery in staples.

China's Two-Speed Economy

Our Thesis

Chinese authorities have for a long time tried to boost consumer spending, but we see little progress on that front. Our data shows that sentiment isn't improving as quickly as policymakers have hoped and expectations are muted. This permeates through the economy proving that a consumption rebalancing is elusive.

What You'll Find in Our Full Research Report

We have gone straight to consumers to get their views. Our 2,000-person survey (weighted by region and demographic) asked for views on the economy, household finances, employment, geopolitics and brands.

House Price Index, By Country

Financial and Industry Model Implications

We are skeptical of a consumer turnaround in China, and our findings underpin our conviction in muted consumption growth for the year ahead. We are incrementally more constructive on the China luxury cohort given stabilizing demand, though recovery remains uneven. We are not making material changes to forecasts but continue to expect a back-end-loaded recovery with a K-shaped dynamic supporting gains in hard luxury and select prestige beauty.

What To Watch For

The ongoing property market slump has resulted in subdued consumer confidence and affects all aspects of their lives. We remain skeptical of a rebound, but this is the sector to watch for signs of a turnaround.

China Consumer Confidence

Subscribing clients can read the full report on the TD One Portal, The China Report: Decoding the Chinese Consumer

Disclaimer

The views or opinions expressed herein represent the personal views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of TD Securities or its affiliates.

This material is intended to provide commentary on the market for commodities discussed herein.

Not Advice: The information contained in this material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation, or to create a fiduciary relationship. Neither TD Securities (USA) LLC (“TD Securities USA”) nor any of its affiliates (collectively, “TD”) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, appropriateness or sufficiency for any purpose of any information included in this material. Certain information may have been provided by third-party sources and, while believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by TD, and its accuracy or completeness acannot be guaranteed. You should not make an investment decision in reliance on this material, which is intended to provide only brief comments on the topics addressed, and is based on information that is likely to change without notice.

Not Securities or Derivatives Research: This material has not been produced, reviewed or approved by TD’s securities or derivatives research departments. The views of the author may differ from others at TD, including TD securities or derivatives research analysts. Not Independent: The views expressed in this material may not be independent of the interests of TD. TD may engage in conflicting activities, including principal trading before or after posting this material, or other services involving commodities discussed in this material, or related financial products. TD may have a financial interest in the commodities discussed in this material, including, without limitation, a financial product that references such commodities.

Not An Offer or Solicitation: Nothing contained in this material is, or should be construed as, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or an invitation to buy or sell any commodity, or any financial product that references such commodity, and it is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to law.

Risk of Loss. Transactions in commodities, and financial instruments that reference commodities, involve risk of loss, and are subject to the risks of fluctuating prices. You should weigh potential benefits against the risks. Past performance is no indicator of future performance and the Materials are not intended to forecast or predict future events.

James Rossiter
Head of Global Economics, TD Securities

Biography

James provides research and analysis covering global macroeconomic trends with a focus on G10 central banks, economic data forecasting and geopolitical risks. James ties together short-term macro dynamics with market moves while maintaining cohesive long-term views across countries and asset classes. James joined TD Securities in 2015.

Alex Loo
Vice President and FX and Macro Strategist, TD Securities

Biography

Alex is an FX and Macro Strategist for TD Securities in Singapore, providing research and analysis on Asia-Pacific economies and markets to clients. Prior to joining TD Securities, Alex worked as an economist in the Ministry of Trade & Industry (Singapore). Alex holds a MSc in Economics from University College London and is a CFA charterholder.

Roman Schweizer
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Roman Schweizer joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 covering defense policy issues. He held previous positions at Guggenheim Securities and MF Global. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Schweizer has over 15 years of experience in Washington, DC, serving as a government acquisition official, industry consultant, and journalist.

Prior to joining Washington Research Group, he was an acquisition professional with the U.S. Navy’s littoral combat ship program. Previously, he directed a team providing congressional and media strategic communications support to senior Navy officials on high-profile ship acquisition programs. Mr. Schweizer has also consulted on U.S. and international defense, aerospace, homeland security, and technology market sectors to Fortune 100 clients on behalf of DFI International and Fathom Dynamics LLC.
He has been published in Inside the Navy, Inside the Pentagon, Armed Forces Journal, Defense News, ISR Journals, Training and Simulation Journal, the Naval Institute’s Proceedings, and the Navy League’s Seapower.

Mr. Schweizer earned a bachelor’s degree in history from American University in Washington, DC.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Oliver Chen, CFA
Retail & Luxury Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Oliver Chen is a Managing Director and senior equity research analyst covering retail and luxury goods. Mr. Chen’s deep understanding of the consumer and his ability to forecast the latest trends and technological changes that will impact the retail space has set him apart from peers. Oliver’s broad coverage and circumspect view makes him the thought partner of retail and brand leaders. His coverage of the retail sector has led to numerous industry awards and press coverage from CNBC, Bloomberg, The New York Times, Financial Times, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal and others. Mr. Chen was recognized on the 2018 and 2017 Institutional Investor All-America Research team as a top analyst in the retailing/department stores & specialty softlines sector. Mr. Chen was also selected as a preeminent retail influencer as he was named to the National Retail Federation (NRF) Foundation’s “2019 List of People Shaping Retail’s Future.” Considered an “industry expert,” Mr. Chen frequently appears as a speaker/panelist at key industry events. Mr. Chen is also an Adjunct Professor in Retail and Marketing at Columbia Business School, teaching the course “New Frontiers in Retailing” and was awarded recognition as an “Outstanding 50 Asian Americans in Business” by the Asian American Business Development Center in 2023 given his role in driving the U.S. economy.

Prior to joining TD Cowen in 2014, he spent seven years at Citigroup covering a broad spectrum of the U.S. consumer retail landscape, including specialty stores, apparel, footwear & textiles, luxury retail, department stores and broadlines. Before Citigroup, he worked in the investment research division at UBS, in the global mergers and acquisitions/strategic planning group at PepsiCo International, and in JPMorgan’s consumer products/retail mergers and acquisitions group.

Mr. Chen holds a Bachelor of Science degree in business administration from Georgetown University, a master’s of business administration from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a CFA charterholder. At the Wharton School, Mr. Chen was a recipient of the Jay H. Baker Retail Award for impact in retailing and was a co-founding president of the Wharton Retail Club. He also serves as a member of the PhD Retail Research Review Committee for the Jay H. Baker Retailing Center at the Wharton School. Mr. Chen was recognized in the Wharton School’s “40 Under 40” brightest stars alumni list in 2017.

Mr. Chen’s passion for the sector began at the age of 12 when he began working with his parents at their retail business in Natchitoches, Louisiana.

Robert Moskow
Managing Director, Consumer – Food & Beverages Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Rob Moskow is an II-ranked analyst covering food and beverages. Prior to joining TD Cowen, Robert spent 21 years at Credit Suisse and four years on the board of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY). He holds a BA in English from Tufts University and an MBA in Marketing from the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School at Northwestern University.

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Consumer & Retail

The China Report: Decoding the Chinese Consumer

What You Need to Know:

The TD Cowen Insight

China's Two-Speed Economy

Our Thesis

What You'll Find in Our Full Research Report

House Price Index, By Country

Financial and Industry Model Implications

What To Watch For

China Consumer Confidence

Disclaimer

Biography

Biography

Biography

Biography

Biography

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