The Long Road to the U.S. Election Nears an End – Or Does It?

Oct. 25, 2024

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Washington politics expert with TD Cowen, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th U.S. Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word, then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-U.S. relations for the duration of the next Administration.

We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast.

Chapters:
00:55 Is the U.S. Election the Most Consequential in History?
02:11 Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome
08:58 USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration
14:07 Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute?
16:50 Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power
27:02 Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling
33:19 Placing Bets on the Winner
36:28 Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election

This podcast was recorded on October 23, 2024.

Full transcript to come.


Portrait of Chris Krueger

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Chris Krueger


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Chris Krueger


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Frank McKenna

Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Portrait of Frank McKenna


Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Portrait of Frank McKenna


Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Photo of Peter Haynes

Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

Photo of Peter Haynes


Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

Photo of Peter Haynes


Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

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