Politics & Policy

The Impact of Nicolas Maduro's Arrest on Western Hemisphere Geopolitics

Jan. 09, 2026

Guests: Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Host: Peter Haynes, Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

Episode 73 of Geopolitics is a special episode in which Frank discusses the implications for global geopolitics of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Frank discusses backlash in Washington of the decision to arrest Maduro without Congressional authority, what it means for possible next moves for the United States as it flexes its military muscle in the Western Hemisphere for both Venezuelan neighbors but also Greenland and Canada. In addition, he ponders the potential that the Maduro move spawns global spheres of influence as the US implements its National Security Strategy (coined by President Trump as "the Donroe Document."

For Canadians, Frank discusses implications of this geopolitical theatre for Canada's energy sector and whether a new pipeline to tidewater is more or less feasible today than last week and whether the prospect of growth in Venezuelan heavy oil production truly provides US leverage in upcoming CUSMA negotiations.

Chapters:
1:10	The Capture of Maduro – U.S. Motivation and Next Day Plans
6:38	Trump Chooses Incumbent over Nobel Prize Winning Opponent
12:54	Rebuilding Venezuela's Oil Infrastructure
17:32	Spheres of Influence – Where Does Canada Stand?
29:54	Sleeping With One Eye Open – Will Trump Follow Through on Saber Rattling?
37:38	Mark Wiseman's Chops as Ambassador
39:18	Implications for Canada's Energy Sector

This podcast was recorded on January 7, 2026.

Full transcript to come.

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Frank McKenna

Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Frank McKenna
Deputy Chair, TD Securities

Biography

As Deputy Chair, Frank is focused on supporting TD Securities' continued global expansion. He has been an executive with TD Bank Group since 2006 and previously served as Premier of New Brunswick and as Canadian Ambassador to the United States.

Peter Haynes

Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

Peter Haynes
Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities

Biography

Peter joined TD Securities in June 1995 and currently leads our Index and Market Structure research team. He also manages some key institutional relationships across the trading floor and hosts two podcast series: one on market structure and one on geopolitics. He started his career at the Toronto Stock Exchange in its index and derivatives marketing department before moving to Credit Lyonnais in Montreal. Peter is a member of S&P’s U.S., Canadian and Global Index Advisory Panels, and spent four years on the Ontario Securities Commission’s Market Structure Advisory Committee.