Market Leadership

Global Best Ideas 2026

By: Robert Fagin, James Rossiter, Paul Gallant, Chris Krueger, John Miller, Roman Schweizer, Jaret Seiberg, Rick Wessenstein

Dec. 16, 2025 - 4 minutes

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What You Need to Know:

Nearly 25% into Trump 2.0, policy velocity and volatility is likely to remain heightened.
Expect the impact from tariffs to remain front and center.
A January 31 deadline could incite a government spending fight to start the year.
Anticipate accelerated investment in development of unmanned defense systems.
TD Cowen continues investing significant resources into producing the highest-quality research, seeking to be experts and thought leaders in sectors we cover.

TD Cowen Global Best Ideas for 2026 features our analysts’ top investment recommendations. This publication includes comprehensive political and legislative perspectives from our Washington Research Group, as well as market analysis from our Strategy team.

Global Outlook 2026: Distinguishing Our Outlook from the Consensus

Our projections for 2026 diverge from market consensus in several significant areas:

U.S. Economy: We anticipate stronger U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and greater outperformance relative to the rest of the world. We also expect a more pronounced decline in inflation during the second half of the year, accompanied by a lower and improved unemployment rate by the end of 2026.
FOMC: We project that the Federal Reserve will implement more monetary easing than currently expected, aligning with slower employment growth and decreasing inflation.
U.S. Rates: We foresee a further 50 basis point decrease in 10-year Treasury yields, whereas consensus generally expects rates to remain stable. We have not observed an increase in term premiums within U.S. yields, nor do we anticipate material changes in this regard for 2026.
Global Rates: We also project decreases in 10-year yields for Canada, Europe and the United Kingdom.
FX: We expect a further 6% depreciation in the USD, with markets likely shifting toward increased hedging activity.
Commodities: We forecast new highs for gold, continued strength across precious metals and maintain a more bullish outlook on crude oil in the second half of the year.

Consensus is Stagflationary on the U.S. Economy – Inflation More Above Target and GDP More Below Potential Than Peers*

TD Expects Tailwinds to Support as U.S. Growth Outperforms and Inflation is Softer than Expected

Best Ideas 2026: Washington Policy Edition

Before the books close on 2025, our policy team assesses the following:

Macro Outlook: Congress may enter 2026 without settled government funding or Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. The main issue is whether the GOP can unify around another reconciliation bill covering defense, artificial intelligence (AI), energy and affordability debates.
Geopolitics and Defense: The rapid spread of tech-enabled unmanned systems is changing military landscapes worldwide, creating both risks and opportunities for suppliers large and small. A Trump-led Department of Defense and GOP-controlled Congress are expected to prioritize innovation and speed up the deployment of AI-powered unmanned and robotic technologies.
Energy Transition and Sustainability: We expect U.S. battery manufacturers to benefit from improved policies in 2026 thanks to continued eligibility for the 45X Advanced Manufacturing credit, increased interest from the White House, DOE and DOD, as well as strong demand fueled by grid growth and rebounding EV sales.
Financials and Housing: Anticipated policy changes should benefit major banks, particularly as regulatory and capital requirements evolve. Team Trump aims to adjust rules so banks can better compete against private credit firms and nonbank mortgage lenders.
Health Care: During the first year of Trump’s second term, FDA and HHS have faced ongoing challenges, but CMS has made quiet progress under Dr. Mehmet Oz’s leadership.
Tech/Media/Telecom: We predict the Trump administration will resolve antitrust and BOTS lawsuits against Live Nation early in 2026, enabling the company to help present Trump with a “lower ticket prices” victory through further regulation of resellers and bots. This outcome would support Trump’s “affordability” message ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

About TD Cowen Global Research & Strategy

Our ongoing mission is to support clients in achieving superior investment outcomes through sophisticated, innovative and differentiated research and analysis. We strive to set the standard for thought leadership and expertise across the sectors we cover.

Our flagship Ahead Of The Curve® Series exemplifies our dedication to producing research that challenges consensus views and inspires original thinking. We maintain an unwavering focus on client service and continue to allocate substantial resources toward delivering high-quality research, distinguishing ourselves at a time when many firms have scaled back such efforts.

Our team of 110 analysts and strategists covers over 1,330 securities and provides specialized insight into macroeconomic topics including commodities, regulatory policy, interest rates and foreign exchange. TD Cowen events attract significant participation from industry professionals, and we are consistently recognised as a leading provider of corporate access in independent surveys.

We balance rigorous, security-specific fundamental analysis with thematic research that addresses long-term trends. Publications such as our annual Best Ideas, Smidcap Sweethearts, Best Ideas Europe, Best Ideas Canada and Thematic Outlook complement weekly perspectives featured in The TD Cowen Edge. In the coming year, we will further enhance the innovation and excellence at the core of our research offerings. Teamwork and collaboration remain central pillars of our approach, supporting cross-sector insights.

Recent publications in 2025 have included studies on space warfare, GLP-1 weight management therapies, advancements in sleep medicine and pain medicine, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, China’s trade dynamics and demographic shifts, among other topics.

Discover more by downloading the full report, TD Cowen’s Best Ideas 2026, on the TD One Portal

Robert Fagin

Executive Managing Director and Global Head of Research, TD Cowen

Robert Fagin
Executive Managing Director and Global Head of Research, TD Cowen

Biography

Robert is currently Executive Managing Director and Global Head of Research at TD Cowen. He is a member of the TD Securities Dealer Leadership Team.

Robert joined TD Cowen in 2012 from Jefferies, where he was Co-Head of U.S. Equity Research and the global coordinator of Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) Research.

Prior to joining Jefferies, Robert was the president of Darga Consulting, which provided strategic consulting services to high-profile private companies, including business planning, capital introduction, M&A analysis and board constitution, and served on a variety of private company boards.

Before founding Darga, Robert was a managing director in Bank of America’s equity research department for five years, where he had senior managerial responsibilities including management of the firm’s TMT, financials, and energy research practices. He also established Bank of America’s Taiwan-based TMT equity research effort.

Prior to coming to Bank of America, Robert was a senior equity research analyst at Bear Stearns, where he was responsible for stock coverage of the Internet Infrastructure Services sector (1999 –2002) and U.S. telecommunications sector (2002 –2004). He was recognized as a member of Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team for coverage of both sectors and was named by Forbes/Starmine as one of the top five earnings estimators in the U.S. across all industries. Robert’s equity research experience also includes three years as an analyst at Oppenheimer, where he covered software stocks.

Before his Wall Street career, Robert was a research analyst at IDC, the world’s leading technology market research firm, and before that worked in the National market analysis group of Coopers & Lybrand (now PricewaterhouseCoopers), where he was responsible for analyses of high-technology clients and potential clients, and supported consulting engagements and due diligence for several large M&A transactions in technology sector. At Coopers, he also served as a member of the firm’s eight-person national technology planning team.

James Rossiter

Managing Director, Head of Global Macro Strategy, TD Securities

James Rossiter
Managing Director, Head of Global Macro Strategy, TD Securities

Biography

James provides research and analysis covering global macroeconomic trends with a focus on G10 central banks, economic data forecasting and geopolitical risks. James ties together short-term macro dynamics with market moves while maintaining cohesive long-term views across countries and asset classes. James joined TD Securities in 2015.

Paul Gallant

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Paul Gallant
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Paul Gallant is TD Cowen’s TMT Policy Analyst based in Washington. For 15+ years he has advised institutional investors on TMT political matters as part of the recently #1 II-ranked Washington Research Group. The Washington Research Group has been consistently ranked in the annual Institutional Investor survey. Before becoming an analyst, Paul served as Legal Advisor to the Chairman of the FCC and as Senior Counsel at Qwest Communications.

He received a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University and a law degree from Catholic University.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Chris Krueger

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Chris Krueger
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Chris Krueger joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 as the Washington Strategist. Mr. Krueger and the TD Cowen Washington Research Group were recently named #2 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category, where he had been consistently ranked for the past decade along with WRG. Mr. Krueger publishes the DC Download, a must-read daily for Wall Street portfolio managers who want a quick look at the top Washington stories and their impact on the capital markets. Mr. Krueger covers DC macro, fiscal, tax and trade policy.

He held similar positions at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital, and Potomac Research Group. Earlier he worked for nearly four years on the senior staff of the House of Representatives. He has also worked on several local, state, and federal political campaigns across the country.

Mr. Krueger holds a BA from the University of Vermont and an MA in international relations from King’s College London. He appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, FT, Axios, New York Times, Washington Post, and POLITICO. He also speaks regularly at industry events and conferences, including the Milken Institute Global Conference, National Organization of Investment Professionals, and the New York Stock Exchange.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

John Miller

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

John Miller
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

John Miller joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in September 2021 and covers ESG and sustainability policy. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Miller previously served as a vice president and senior ESG research analyst at Calvert Research and Management, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where he developed and built a quantitative, company-level ESG risk/reward assessment framework targeted towards the global energy and utility sectors. Mr. Miller supported the index development and security selection process for Calvert’s Global Energy Solutions Fund and Global Water Fund. Mr. Miller also worked at the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as branch chief in the Office of Enforcement, Division of Analytics and Surveillance. Earlier, he served as Technical and Policy Advisor to a FERC commissioner and as an energy analyst in FERC’s Office of Enforcement.

Mr. Miller holds a B.A. in economic history and political science from The George Washington University, and a Master’s in global history from The London School of Economics and Political Science, where he focused on developmental economics. John also holds the Fundamentals of Sustainability Accounting certification, which is granted by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB).

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Roman Schweizer

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Roman Schweizer
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Roman Schweizer joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 covering defense policy issues. He held previous positions at Guggenheim Securities and MF Global. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Schweizer has over 15 years of experience in Washington, DC, serving as a government acquisition official, industry consultant, and journalist.

Prior to joining Washington Research Group, he was an acquisition professional with the U.S. Navy’s littoral combat ship program. Previously, he directed a team providing congressional and media strategic communications support to senior Navy officials on high-profile ship acquisition programs. Mr. Schweizer has also consulted on U.S. and international defense, aerospace, homeland security, and technology market sectors to Fortune 100 clients on behalf of DFI International and Fathom Dynamics LLC.
He has been published in Inside the Navy, Inside the Pentagon, Armed Forces Journal, Defense News, ISR Journals, Training and Simulation Journal, the Naval Institute’s Proceedings, and the Navy League’s Seapower.

Mr. Schweizer earned a bachelor’s degree in history from American University in Washington, DC.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Jaret Seiberg

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Jaret Seiberg is the financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, which was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Before joining TD Cowen in August 2016, he served in similar roles at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital and Stanford Financial Group. He began following financial policy in the early 1990s as a journalist covering efforts in Congress to complete the last of the laws from the savings and loan crisis. He tracked the merger wave of the 1990s and Glass-Steagall repeal in 1999 as the deputy Washington bureau chief for American Banker and as the Washington bureau chief for The Daily Deal. His bailiwick at TD Cowen includes issues related to commercial banks, housing, payments, investment banking, M&A, taxes, the CFPB, crypto currency, cannabis and Capitol Hill.

Mr. Seiberg has a BA from The American University and an MBA from the University of Maryland at College Park. He speaks regularly at industry events, is often quoted in the media, and appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Rick Weissenstein

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Rick Weissenstein
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Rick Weissenstein joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 and covers health care services policy issues. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Stanford Financial, and Schwab Soundview, where he was responsible for analyzing health care policy issues and emerging trends in the federal and state legislative, regulatory, and legal arenas and their implications for the health care industry.

He was formerly the Washington Bureau Chief for Modern Healthcare magazine, and a reporter for Advertising Age magazine. Mr. Weissenstein began his career as a Certified Public Accountant in the Chicago office of Ernst & Young. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting at Millikin University, and a master’s degree in journalism at the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.