Guests: Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities
Host: Peter Haynes, Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities
In Episode 76, Frank ponders the potential outcomes of the War in Iran and its impact on other global geopolitical events. He believes that despite a wide bid-ask spread in peace negotiations between Iran and the US that the Trump Administration will find a peaceful end to hostilities in the near future. Complicating matters in this war are different goals for the two protagonists, The US and Israel, one of which has to live next door to a now angry Iranian regime. Frank is not surprised by Iran's tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the lack of support for military escorts from NATO allies. One certainty is the impact of the war on energy prices and, in turn, broader inflation trends in the US is going to be negative for Trump and the Republicans at mid-term elections in November.
We finish the dialogue back home in Canada, where citizens of the Province of Alberta are expected to hold a vote on secession from Canada later this year, an unfortunate distraction for Albertans and Canadians at a time of so much other geopolitical noise. Despite this unwanted noise and limited likelihood of success in the first secession attempt, Canadians would be remiss if we simply ignored this Alberta secession vote as noise; just ask citizens of the UK who didn’t take Brexit seriously until it was too late.
| Chapitres: | |
|---|---|
| 1:47 | The Goal of War with Iran |
| 8:18 | Narrowing the Bid-Ask Spread on Peace Negotiations |
| 12:57 | Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz |
| 16:31 | Trump's Tries to Hold His Base |
| 19:45 | The Future of NATO |
| 27:19 | China's Quiet Positioning |
| 35:05 | Higher Energy Prices – Impact on Mid-Terms |
| 37:31 | Save America Act |
| 43:11 | Alberta Secession Talk |
| 55:57 | Frank's Two Favorite Words "Opening Day" |
This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2026.
Full transcript to come.
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