Global Best Ideas 2026

What You Need to Know:

• Nearly 25% into Trump 2.0, policy velocity and volatility is likely to remain heightened.
• Expect the impact from tariffs to remain front and center.
• A January 31 deadline could incite a government spending fight to start the year.
• Anticipate accelerated investment in development of unmanned defense systems.
• TD Cowen continues investing significant resources into producing the highest-quality research, seeking to be experts and thought leaders in sectors we cover.

TD Cowen Global Best Ideas for 2026 features our analysts’ top investment recommendations. This publication includes comprehensive political and legislative perspectives from our Washington Research Group, as well as market analysis from our Strategy team.

Global Outlook 2026: Distinguishing Our Outlook from the Consensus

Our projections for 2026 diverge from market consensus in several significant areas:

• U.S. Economy: We anticipate stronger U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and greater outperformance relative to the rest of the world. We also expect a more pronounced decline in inflation during the second half of the year, accompanied by a lower and improved unemployment rate by the end of 2026.
• FOMC: We project that the Federal Reserve will implement more monetary easing than currently expected, aligning with slower employment growth and decreasing inflation.
• U.S. Rates: We foresee a further 50 basis point decrease in 10-year Treasury yields, whereas consensus generally expects rates to remain stable. We have not observed an increase in term premiums within U.S. yields, nor do we anticipate material changes in this regard for 2026.
• Global Rates: We also project decreases in 10-year yields for Canada, Europe and the United Kingdom.
• FX: We expect a further 6% depreciation in the USD, with markets likely shifting toward increased hedging activity.
• Commodities: We forecast new highs for gold, continued strength across precious metals and maintain a more bullish outlook on crude oil in the second half of the year.

Consensus is Stagflationary on the U.S. Economy – Inflation More Above Target and GDP More Below Potential Than Peers*

TD Expects Tailwinds to Support as U.S. Growth Outperforms and Inflation is Softer than Expected

Best Ideas 2026: Washington Policy Edition

Before the books close on 2025, our policy team assesses the following:

• Macro Outlook: Congress may enter 2026 without settled government funding or Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. The main issue is whether the GOP can unify around another reconciliation bill covering defense, artificial intelligence (AI), energy and affordability debates.
• Geopolitics and Defense: The rapid spread of tech-enabled unmanned systems is changing military landscapes worldwide, creating both risks and opportunities for suppliers large and small. A Trump-led Department of Defense and GOP-controlled Congress are expected to prioritize innovation and speed up the deployment of AI-powered unmanned and robotic technologies.
• Energy Transition and Sustainability: We expect U.S. battery manufacturers to benefit from improved policies in 2026 thanks to continued eligibility for the 45X Advanced Manufacturing credit, increased interest from the White House, DOE and DOD, as well as strong demand fueled by grid growth and rebounding EV sales.
• Financials and Housing: Anticipated policy changes should benefit major banks, particularly as regulatory and capital requirements evolve. Team Trump aims to adjust rules so banks can better compete against private credit firms and nonbank mortgage lenders.
• Health Care: During the first year of Trump’s second term, FDA and HHS have faced ongoing challenges, but CMS has made quiet progress under Dr. Mehmet Oz’s leadership.
• Tech/Media/Telecom: We predict the Trump administration will resolve antitrust and BOTS lawsuits against Live Nation early in 2026, enabling the company to help present Trump with a “lower ticket prices” victory through further regulation of resellers and bots. This outcome would support Trump’s “affordability” message ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

About TD Cowen Global Research & Strategy

Our ongoing mission is to support clients in achieving superior investment outcomes through sophisticated, innovative and differentiated research and analysis. We strive to set the standard for thought leadership and expertise across the sectors we cover.

Our flagship Ahead Of The Curve® Series exemplifies our dedication to producing research that challenges consensus views and inspires original thinking. We maintain an unwavering focus on client service and continue to allocate substantial resources toward delivering high-quality research, distinguishing ourselves at a time when many firms have scaled back such efforts.

Our team of 110 analysts and strategists covers over 1,330 securities and provides specialized insight into macroeconomic topics including commodities, regulatory policy, interest rates and foreign exchange. TD Cowen events attract significant participation from industry professionals, and we are consistently recognised as a leading provider of corporate access in independent surveys.

We balance rigorous, security-specific fundamental analysis with thematic research that addresses long-term trends. Publications such as our annual Best Ideas, Smidcap Sweethearts, Best Ideas Europe, Best Ideas Canada and Thematic Outlook complement weekly perspectives featured in The TD Cowen Edge. In the coming year, we will further enhance the innovation and excellence at the core of our research offerings. Teamwork and collaboration remain central pillars of our approach, supporting cross-sector insights.

Recent publications in 2025 have included studies on space warfare, GLP-1 weight management therapies, advancements in sleep medicine and pain medicine, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, China’s trade dynamics and demographic shifts, among other topics.