Politique et politiques
The China Report: Holding The Busan Truce
By: Roman Schweizer, Chris Krueger, Paul Gallant, John Miller, Jaret Seiberg, Molly T. Turoo
mai 13, 2026 - 3 minutes
What You Need to Know:
- Top of U.S. agenda in Beijing includes soybean purchases, foreign direct investment, rare earths, tariffs, Taiwan, semiconductors, autos, defense and Iran.
- U.S. defense is focused on deterrence and preventing P.R.C. from achieving hegemony in the Indo-Pacific and defense modernization focused on PRC threats.
- Despite headline risk, we suspect potential U.S. restrictions on semis/semicaps won't be materially negative for affected chips and tools companies.
- Faced by growing P.R.C. capabilities, U.S. policies are taking shape to decouple/protect leadership in biotech and drug supply chains.
- Critical minerals have emerged as the primary energy transition policy flashpoint between the U.S. and P.R.C.
The TD Cowen Insight
Expectations remain low for any breakthroughs in the relationship between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.). Both sides are expected to maintain the post-Busan truce and may seek to keep it in place another year. U.S. policy on P.R.C. continues to run through the White House, and we expect some areas will continue to be rough spots including tariffs, Taiwan and semiconductors.
China policy in a nutshell
We see U.S. policy towards China driven by three core goals:
- Reshape Trade Relationships Tariffs and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the key pillars. People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) is the focus of both new Section 301 investigations, along with a pre-existing one on failure to implement Phase One trade deal from Trump 1.0.
- Deter Regional Conflict The U.S. military focuses on deterrence in INDOPACOM – preventing P.R.C. from achieving regional hegemony and protecting the western hemisphere from P.R.C. influence in countries including Mexico, Panama, Venezuela and Cuba.
- Constrain P.R.C. Tech Advancement Despite headline risk, we suspect U.S. restrictions on the sale of semis to overseas buyers and halting semicaps-to-P.R.C. (MATCH Act) ultimately will not be materially negative for the affected chips and tools companies.
Our Washington Research Group provides an overview of key policy issues:
Macro/Trade
The top of agenda includes soybean purchases, foreign direct investment, rare earths, tariffs, Taiwan, semiconductors, defense, autos and Iran – along with details around "Board of Trade." China is the focus of new 301 investigations along with a pre-existing failure to implement Phase One.
Geopolitical Security and Defense
The Trump Administration's security policy is focused on deterrence and preventing P.R.C. from achieving hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. To this end, defense modernization is focused on strategic capabilities including nuclear forces, space, missile defense/munitions, naval, unmanned, AI/cyber and others.
Tech/Media/Telecom
We suspect potential U.S. restrictions on the sale of semiconductors to overseas buyers (new AI Diffusion rule) despite negative headline risk, and halting semicaps-to-P.R.C. (MATCH Act) ultimately won't be materially negative for the affected chips and tools companies.
Health Care
The rapid progress made by P.R.C. in biotech, and its dominance as a supplier of critical medicines, is viewed as a major threat to U.S. national security and industry leadership. In response, the U.S. is considering new policies, funding and regulations to decouple from P.R.C. and to protect its leadership in the life sciences sector.
Energy Transition
Critical minerals (including processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs)) have emerged as the primary energy transition policy flashpoint between the U.S. and P.R.C. under Trump 2.0. We see meaningful policy risk, with Trump's transactional governing approach as the largest single uncertainty.
Financials
We expect Team Trump will renew threats to cut off Chinese companies from U.S. capital markets, though action is likely only if trade conditions deteriorate significantly.
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques de défense et de l’aérospatiale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques de défense et de l’aérospatiale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques de défense et de l’aérospatiale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste en macroéconomie, commerce, fiscalité et politique fiscale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste en macroéconomie, commerce, fiscalité et politique fiscale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste en macroéconomie, commerce, fiscalité et politique fiscale, TD Cowen
Directeur général et analyste des politiques, Groupe de recherche de Washington, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications, TD Cowen
Directeur général et analyste des politiques, Groupe de recherche de Washington, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications, TD Cowen
Directeur général et analyste des politiques, Groupe de recherche de Washington, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques ESG et de développement durable, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques ESG et de développement durable, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste des politiques ESG et de développement durable, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – analyste, Services financiers et Politiques, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – analyste, Services financiers et Politiques, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – analyste, Services financiers et Politiques, TD Cowen
Ajouter un Signet
